Weather Report – February 2020

Despite the snow and cold-snap in January, the long-term forecast by NOAA (USA), give a slightly higher probability for warmer than normal temperatures for the next few months (Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast hasn’t been updated since the end of December).

The US drought monitor report of January 23, 2020, lists Okanogan County, WA as abnormally dry/in moderate drought.

The snow pillow report for Mission Creek shows above normal snow for January, but Brenda Mines is still at average levels.

It’s important to note on both of these charts that peak accumulation is not until April, so there is a lot left in question for 2020 snow water storage. Also, the 2017 flood was in a year with low snow accumulation, so it’s not a perfect gauge for flood predictions.

The World Meteorological Organization and NOAA separately project that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation will remain in a neutral state for the first half of 2020. In B.C., El Niño conditions are associated with dryness, and La Niña conditions are associated with rain.

Estimated Probabilities