NOAA (U.S. weather agency) continues to forecast warmer-and-drier-than-normal conditions through the summer of 2024.
Although this website only forecasts for the U.S., it is updated more frequently than Environment Canada forecasts: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/
Okanagan Lake is at the 29th percentile for this time of year (only 29 out of 100 years have lake levels been this low at this day of the year), reflecting both the management of the lake, and the recent unseasonal rains.
Okanagan snowpillows have recovered to just below the 25th percentile for their historical records. At high elevations, there is not much run off, and the snow can absorb some of the rain, but extended warm temperatures will decrease the size of the snow-reservoir going into our spring freshet. In general, water managers can still be cautiously optimistic at this time of year, because there is a lot of time left to catch up. However, given the El Niño conditions, there is a real possibility that the drought will continue into 2024. The current El Niño forecast projects the condition weakening in the spring of 2024, moving to a neutral El Niño/La Niña status.
